=Housekeeping= - Next wednesday's readings are a 3-part freakonomics entry - Write up to 7, and they will grade the best X (X <= 4) - Essays due the monday after a unit ends =Methods= Poverty line - initially nutrition/food based, but then extended to include quality-of-life - even with PPP adjustment, technology and other innovations over time increase amount you can buy, and you need to re-evaluate periodically Datasources to measure consumption - surveys (world bank survey): detailed vs. frequent - national accounts, such as GDP - frequent: released quarterly, etc. - crude: don't see income distribution, etc. The surveys are internally consistent, but happen infrequently. It's an accurate measure every 10 or so years. ==Sampling Solution for Growth== Dollar & Kray and Sal-e-Martin interpolate between infrequent surveys by taking survey to find fraction of income that bottom 20% of people represent (s), and multiplying that by GDP each time gdp (y) is released to result in the growth in their share. So x (income share) = sy Then they plot logx vs logy, to see how poor people's share grows as gdp grows. But log x = log s + log y So they are plotting log s + log y vs log y. That's just a shifted line! So sure it looks like there's correlation of growth in society to growth in poor. ==GINI Coefficient== Put people in order of income. x = %ile of ppl ordered by income frac = % of GDP (y) that x owns Ploy x vs y, and see a 45-degree line (/)---that's a totally egalitarian society. bottom .1 of society owns .1 of GDP. In a totally unegalitarian society, You will see ____|, which says that top person in society has 100% of money. GINI = 1--> un-egalitarian society GINI = 0--> egalitarian society GINI is a relative measure of wealth distribution Variance (or actually standard deviation) is different---it measures how different people are in dollars. =Duflo's Conclusions (from Dollar & Kray article)= - methods matter: internal consistency helps, rather than trying to add a time component which has unhelpful data. - Growth is good for the poor in absolute terms conclusion came from studying household income (in absolute terms) vs gdp. same trend as Dollar & Kray, but for maybe more legitimate reasons - Inequality is orthogonal to growth GINI not correlated with GDP - The household income vs gdp data, while showing what dollar & kray also said, is a lot more noisy. The interesting stuff is in the noise. - Causality matters. Oftentimes, it's not _schooling_ that leads to growth, it's _anticipation of growth_ that leads to schooling. This is what happened with the famine---people thought it was coming, so they hoarded. =Essay-writing= - not stream of conscience---organize thoughts! - you should respond to readings, as questions relate to them - feel free to change the topics - share an opinion---it's OK to disagree with article